UFC 249 Breakdown and Gambling Picks
Covid-19 aka “The Karen Virus” has left many people in a captive state of boredom and uncertainty. Being stuck at home is not enjoyable, but if you add in the complete shutdown of live sports, it goes from not enjoyable to unbearable. That's where Dana White and the UFC have come to your rescue.
Since this pandemic has started, major sports leagues have been scratching their heads trying to come up with a plan to somehow continue. So far the attempts have been weird and in my opinion, missed the mark. Listen, I don't give a shit about E-Racing and neither should you.
Back in mid March the UFC had an event in Brazil right about the time a stay at home order was put into place in the United States. The event ended up going on since Brazil was still allowing groups of 100 people to be in one place. Don't get me wrong, it was very weird watching fights without fans, but that was at the beginning of this pandemic and I was accustomed to sold out crowds.
Little did I know that event was going to be the last one I would enjoy for a while. As an avid viewer of combat sports and a degenerate gambler, I'm used to watching fight cards just about every weekend. The UFC cancelled their next 3 events while Dana White and a bunch of other billionaires tried to find a solution. They tried to make a fight card on April 21st that was going to take place at a tribal casino in California. The event did not happen because of backlash from the media and ESPN. I assumed I wouldn't be able to watch any fight cards for the foreseeable future. My depression was slowing setting in.
That is until Dana White came down from the raftors and told Covid-19 to pump it's brakes.
The UFC announced that an event will take place on May 9th in Jacksonville, FL. I didn't really get my hopes up, because I knew that everything would have to be perfect for this event to take place.
Well, I am currently writing this Blog at 11:30 pm on May 8th and IT’S HAPPENING!! The weigh ins are done and only one hiccup has occured.
Jacare Souza has tested positive for Covid-19, but the UFC knew that he might be infected because of a family members positive result. The UFC knew about this and kept Souza and his team in isolation until they knew what the result was. That fight has been nixed, but the rest of the card is still on.
Now usually I would breakdown a couple of fights on a blog and breakdown the rest on a podcast. I did record a podcast for this event, but if Im being honest, it was absolute trash. I stumbled through the entire thing and didn't give the magnitude of this card enough justice. So I'm going to breakdown every fight and give you my picks.
Ryan Spann -450 vs Sam Alvey +325
Ryan Spann got a contract to the UFC after winning a fight on Dana Whites Contender Series by a first round guillotine choke. Since then he’s been off to the races. Winning 3 straight and starting to make a name for himself in the Light Heavyweight Division. Spann is a power striker and if he catches you, have fun waking up and wondering what just happened. Striking is not his best attribute however. With 17 wins in his MMA career, 11 have been by submission. Needless to say , he's a problem for most opponents. Especially for his opponent in this fight. Sam Alvey better pack a lunch for this one.
I don't want to be disrespectful towards Alvey but he doesn't stand a chance in this fight. Don't get me wrong, Alvey is as tough as they come and has an exciting knockout reel to prove it. The thing is, Sam Alvey is completely out matched in this one. He’s not fast or big enough to deal with the pace that Spann will put on him. Spann wins this any way he wants.
Bryce Mitchell -170 vs Charles Rosa +140
First you have Bryce Mitchell. A maniac of a man that goes by the moniker “Thug Nasty”. An undefeated fighter with a record of 12-0, 9 of the wins being by submission. He's a fresh new face in the featherweight division. Bryce is a different duck. Do yourself a favor and watch the video of him explaining how he choked a deer to death.
He's fighting Charles Rosa, an east coast fighter that has one thing in common with Bryce Mitchell, he's also a savant in the grappling department. Rosa can't seem to get a winning streak going because of his inability to beat people with high level striking. This fight will end up on the ground and it will be enjoyable. I'm picking Rosa in this one. Even though Mitchell has momentum on his side and Rosa is in a limbo of winning every other fight, this matchup is taylor made for Rosa. If Mitchell gets too aggressive on the ground, he will get caught.
Vicente Luque -265 vs Niko Price +205
If I had to compare Vicente Luque to a movie character it would be T-1000 in Terminator 2: Judgement Day.
The man takes everything you have to give him and still comes forward with the intent to end you. Luque has 17 wins in his MMA career with 15 of those wins by stoppages. He doesn't want to just win, he wants to finish you.
Price is no slouch either. With 10 knockouts in his 14 wins, Price is not to be taken lightly. These two already fought once, with Luque winning by submission. That is one of the reasons I'm picking Luque. He's already shown that he's the better fighter. Another reason to pick Luque is his very technical striking. He comes at you with angles and feints, while Price is a lot more reckless and leaves himself open to getting caught. Luque wins this and it's probably a performance of the night contender.
Carla Esparza -155 vs Michelle Waterson +125
Ever since Esparza became the first ever woman's strawweight champion and then lost in her first defense to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, she's become a gatekeeper.
You have get past her to have a chance to fight for the gold. This fight is a chance to get out of the gatekeeper role. She's going against Michelle Waterson aka “The Karate Hottie”. Waterson uses her striking to keep distance and make sure the fight stays on the feet. This is a classic match of two opposite styles. Esparza wants to take you down and control the majority of this fight on the canvas. Can Waterson prevent the takedown? Yes she can. Waterson wins this by decision by frustrating Esparza with efficient striking and solid takedown defense.
Aleksei Oleinik +255 vs Frabicio Werdum -335
Fabricio Werdum hasn't fought for two years because of a PED suspension.
Now that his suspension is up, the UFC gifted him with a perfect tune up fight to shake the dust off. He's fighting Aleksei Oleinik, a 42 year old BJJ stud that has over 70 fights. Fabricio is better in every aspect of this fight. If it stays standing, the fight will be over in minutes and if it goes to the ground, Werdum will eventually find a limb to tear apart. Pick Werdum by stoppage.
Donald Cerrone +125 vs Anthony Pettis -155
These two first fought each other back in 2013 where Anthony Pettis won in the first round by a body kick.
A lot has happened for both fighters careers since then. Anthony Pettis has won and lost the 155 title and fought in three different weight classes. Donald Cerrone has broke multiple records, including most all-time wins in UFC history. While both these fighters will eventually end up in the hall of fame, they're both at the tail end of their career. This fight will most likely end up like the first. Both men struggle at making the 155 pound weight, but Cerrone is definitely more prone to getting hurt from body shots at this weight. Pettis Wins and probably gets a stoppage over a slightly more weathered Cerrone.
Greg Hardy -205 vs Yorgan de Castro +165
Greg Hardy has had an odd start to his MMA career to say the least. He was signed by the UFC after he won two fights on the Dana White Contender Series. Before that he had zero pro fights, which is unheard of. Since then, he’s had a pretty successfull career considering his lack of experience. He's relied on his athleticism, which is more than most considering, he was an all pro defensive end for the Dallas Cowboys. He's also faced backlash because of his former domestic abuse case. There is a reason he's on the main card, because whether people like him or hate him, they want to watch him. He's going up against Yorgan de Castro, another fighter with lack of experience who throws his meathooks with reckless abandon which has helped him get 5 knockouts in 6 wins. While de Castro is a scary opponent for anybody, he will lose this fight. He's too slow and has way worse cardio than Hardy, which is funny considering Hardy is asthmatic. Pick Hardy by KO.
Jeremy Stephens +220 vs Calvin Kattar -280
This is a fight that could make Calvin Kattar a household name, or another body crossed off Jeremy Stephens hit list. Stephens has been in the UFC since 2007, and while he has had 16 losses in his career, he's still a monster and probably the hardest hitting featherweight of all time. He’s a body snatcher that wants to shorten people's lifespans.
Calvin Kattar is the new blood in the featherweight division and is hungry to crack into the top 5. He’s a lot more technical than Stephens and that is why he wins this fight. Kattar will use his slick boxing to frustrate the aggressive Stephens and coast his way to a decision.
Francis Ngannou -280 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +220
The winner of this fight will most likely get a title shot, well they should anyway. Let's start with Rozenstruik. He's a former kickboxer who had a record of 76-8 with 64 wins by knockout. That is fucking insane! The man knows how to short circuit a brain. He's only has 10 fights in MMA, but he's undefeated with 9 knockouts.
On paper, you would think that picking Rozenstruik would be the easy choice to make some money, especially since he's the underdog. Well, he's an underdog for a reason. It's very hard to be a scarier matchup than Rozenstruik, but Ngannou is probably the scariest man on planet earth. He grew up working in the sand mines of Cameroon. He didn't have the easiest upbringing, but it made him in to the man he is today. A 6 foot 5, 255 pound monster, with the fists the size of cinder blocks and the strength of a powerlifter. He's 14-3 with all of his wins being by stoppage.
Now I know he has 3 losses, but that was because he had lack of experience. Ngannou keeps getting better, and eventually will be the champion. I don't think this fight lasts more than one round and Ngannou will be the victor.
Henry Cejudo -210 vs Dominick Cruz +170
Henry Cejudo is definitely in consideration for greatest combat sports athlete of all time. He's a former gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, former flyweight champ, and current bantamweight champ. It's hard to bet against him when he keeps proving everybody wrong. He's only had one loss in the octogan, which was against flyweight G.O.A.T Demetrius “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, which he avenged to win the title. The one thing about Cejudo that isn't great are his mic skills. He's so cringey on the promotion side of the sport. It's hard to watch.
He's going up against Dominick Cruz, the former bantamweight champ that has the most wins in bantamweight history.
One thing to note is Cruz hasn't fought since 2016, which is an enternity of inactivity in MMA. Cruz says that ring rust doesn't exist, but one thing he can't deny is that father time is real, especially in a weight class such as bantamweight. Cejudo is too strong and fast for Cruz to get his game of footwork and takedowns going. All Cruz has over Cejudo is size, but it won't be enough. Pick Cejudo in this one.
Tony Ferguson -210 vs Justin Gaethje +170
Now, we're finally at the main course. This fight is the equivalent of kobe beef that was prepared by Wolfgang Puck and served by Salt Bae. It has potential of getting fight of the year, or maybe fight of the decade. Now, I know thats a bold statement considering it's the start of the decade, but the proof is in the pudding.
Tony Ferguson only has one loss in his UFC career and it was back in 2012. That's 8 years of beating the top competition in a lightweight division that's arguably the deepest division in the UFC. He's a psychopath that somehow gains more energy as the fight goes on. Ferguson may not be the best at any specific discipline in MMA, but I don't think there is a better overall fighter.
He's going up against an equally tough/insane opponent in Justin Gaethje. Gaethje loves bringing the fight into deep waters, where he punishes his opponents with devasting leg kicks and heavy hands that would give a rhino CTE. He's had 6 fights in the UFC and received 7 post fight bonuses. It's literally impossible for Gaethje to be in a boring fight. Now, while he has two losses, he's made corrections and has had three straight first round knockouts.
I'm picking Justin Gaethje. He's a former division one All American in wrestling, so it's going to be very hard to get him to the ground. Ferguson likes to have the option of using his wrestling, but Justin Gaethje's ground hasn't been seen because all he wants to do is throw his limbs in a chaotic but calculated manner like a murder hornet destroying a honey bee hive. This fight will be fireworks no matter what, but Justin Gaethje takes the W.
So that's that. Whether you tail my picks or fade them, these fights are something you don't want to miss. WATCH THEM!