Well, we’re here again with another UFC event 4 days after Justin Gaethje took Tony Ferguson's soul at UFC 249.

I did a breakdown of the card and gave my picks for the evening. Overall it went pretty well, getting 8 out of the 11 fights correct. I expect to do the same for this card. I recorded a podcast with my picks for all but 2 fights on the card. I'm putting 3 of those picks on this blog. Let's get to it.

Philipe Lins -165 vs Andrei Arlovski +135

Philpe Lins is making his UFC debut. He's coming off a winning the heavyweight tournament for the PFL on December of 2018, where he pocketed one million dollars for his victory.

Although it's his octagon debut, he's still faced tough competition fighting for Bellator and PFL. He's a black belt in BJJ, but also has heavy hands if the fight stays standing. With 8 knockouts and 4 submissions out of 14 wins, he's a dangerous fight for anyone.

He's going up against Andrei Arlovski, who's currently on the back end of his MMA career. Arlovski is 41 and his performance as of late has definitely showed his age. Out out his last 10 fights, he has only 3 wins. The Arlovski of old is definitely a thing of the past and doesn't seem to be ever coming back.

Lins is the pick. He's the younger fighter with more to gain. No matter where this fight goes, Lins has the advantage.

Alexander Hernandez -105 vs Drew Dober -125

Hernandez has had an impressive start to his UFC career. He's gone 3-1 against top level competition out of the gate. His only hiccup is when he pissed off Donald Cerrone and got straight up older brothered in the fight.

He uses his athleticism and good overall game to put a pace of guys that is very hard to handle. While his career trajectory is still up in the air, he's still has not reached his prime, and I expect him to only get better.

He's going up against Drew Dober, who's won his last 5 out of 6 fights. His striking is definitely his best attribute. His use of perfect technique and power has landed him two first round stoppages in a row.

The lines in this fight are close for a reason. Both fighters are as game as they come and a fight of the night award is expected. The pick here is Drew Dober. It seems Hernandez gets a bit overconfident because of his athleticism. If he comes rushing in on a veteran like Dober, expect Dober to catch him slipping and counter him. Dober is the pick at -125. If you feel like taking a gamble, take Dober to win inside the distance at +235.

Anthony Smith -185 vs Glover Teixeira +150

Ever since Smith moved up to the light heavyweight division, he's looked great going 4-1. His only loss is to the undefeated Jon Jones, who is considered by some to be the greatest MMA fighter of all time. He's as tough as they come with a great all round game. He also doesn't lack experience. He's 31 and has 46 fights.

He's going up against Glover Teixeira, an MMA vet that has a 30-7 record. His ground game is slick, and his boxing his nasty. If he doesn't knock you out their is a good chance he’ll render you unconscious if the fight hits the floor. Glover's only losses are to top contenders.

This is a tough fight to pick and as a main event, and thats the way it should be. The lines are skewed a bit in my opinion. I guess the reason why Smith is the favorite is because of the competition he's faced as of late. I still think the odds should be even though. That is why I'm picking Glover at +150. He's has more ways to win than Smith. A bet with slight more risk is picking him to win by submission at +375. Or if you want to really gamble, take him winning by KO at +600.

If you want the rest of the picks, listen to episode 101 of the Gambling Goosecast, which is available on apple podcast and a miriad of other apps. You can also listen to it at the bottom of this article. Isn't that neat? Let's win some fucking money!